Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
14 0x1490…40b4 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+11%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$23
other 27% −$16
crypto 22% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +4.7% -5.3% 32% 29% -10.5%
≤30d 54 +8.9% -1.5% 48% 31% -7.8%
≤90d 54 +8.9% -1.5% 48% 31% -7.8%
all 54 +8.9% -1.5% 48% 31% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 31% -7.8%
10% -10.9% 24% -16.6%
15% -19.5% 20% -24.7%
20% -27.4% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage22d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$15 +236%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$8 +365%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $5 −$2 -39%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw? Jun 06 $4 +$3 +68%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $13 −$5 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4 +$7 +170%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$2 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $8 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5 +$1 +14%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 29 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $7 +$1 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $1 $0 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $5 −$2 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 27 $1 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 11m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 46m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 47m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 55m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 57m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $12 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 22h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.87 · official $8.87 (match) · 152 history records