trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 22 | -11.9% | -20.3% | 32% | 18% | -32.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.3% | 18% | -32.3% |
| 10% | -27.9% | 18% | -38.8% |
| 15% | -34.9% | 18% | -44.7% |
| 20% | -41.3% | 18% | -50.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 56¢ | 56¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland | Feb 20 | $303 | −$43 | -14% |
| Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia | Feb 20 | $40 | −$3 | -8% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jan 19 | $350 | −$17 | -5% |
| Will Solana reach $150 in January? | Jan 15 | $87 | −$20 | -24% |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? | Oct 31 | $200 | −$135 | -68% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Oct 31 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Oct 31 | $100 | −$72 | -72% |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 30 | $443 | −$270 | -61% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 30 | $10 | +$12 | +124% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Oct 30 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Oct 28 | $400 | −$41 | -10% |
| Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary e | Oct 28 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? | Oct 28 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 28 | $40 | −$34 | -84% |
| Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 28 | $20 | −$17 | -86% |
| Dolphins vs. Falcons | Oct 26 | $20 | +$63 | +317% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | Oct 26 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Sabres vs. Maple Leafs | Oct 25 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Nov 08 | $46 | −$46 | -100% |
| Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b? | Nov 08 | $87 | −$87 | -100% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Nov 08 | $22 | +$12 | +53% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 08 | $8 | +$8 | +104% |