Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1488…e492 other 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$525 (-2%) realized −$539 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%87W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days−$90
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$531
sports 3% +$118
tech 1% −$101
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 50% -6.3%
≤30d 4 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 50% -28.6%
≤90d 25 -42.6% -48.0% 40% 32% -10.6%
all 309 -9.1% -17.7% 28% 24% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 24% -11.7%
10% -25.6% 21% -20.2%
15% -32.8% 16% -27.9%
20% -39.4% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$43 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$539
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses87 / 222
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage205d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $135 $149 +$14 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $142 +$158 +111%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 −$148 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $11 +$5 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $106 +$36 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $252 +$48 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 75 and 76 million views on day Apr 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 76 million or more views on day 6? Apr 10 $67 +$59 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $206 +$42 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $331 +$19 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $13 −$12 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 53 million views on day 2 Apr 06 $401 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $243 +$58 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $152 +$44 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $108 +$26 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 23 $269 +$30 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $206 +$34 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $132 +$68 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $65 −$41 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 63 million views on day 4 Mar 12 $327 +$43 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $73 +$18 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 65 million views on day 4 Mar 11 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3 Mar 10 $172 +$58 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3 Mar 10 $31 −$27 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $48 +$61 +127%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 60 million views on day 3 Mar 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $76 +$24 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 88¢ $3 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 88¢ $48 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 89¢ $154 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 88¢ $78 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 8d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland SELL Finland 55¢ $16 24d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 38¢ $11 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 60d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 60d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 60d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $98 60d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 60d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 60d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 60d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 60d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $52 60d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 62d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 62d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 62d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.32 · official $149.32 (match) · 2182 history records