Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1488…c5f5 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized −$29 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -91% what you keep after slip
Net edge-91%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-91.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -90.1% -91.1% 0% 0% -93.7%
≤30d 5 -90.1% -91.1% 0% 0% -93.7%
≤90d 5 -90.1% -91.1% 0% 0% -93.7%
all 5 -90.1% -91.1% 0% 0% -93.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -91.1% 0% -93.7%
10% -91.9% 0% -94.3%
15% -92.7% 0% -94.9%
20% -93.4% 0% -95.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -101% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -90% · $-wt -101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$14 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+90%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+38%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $14 $21 +$6 (+44%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$11 -74%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -94%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 1h
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 1h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 3h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 3h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 25h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 26h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 40h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 42h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 47h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 47h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 47h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 3d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 5d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.38 · official $85.38 (match) · 31 history records