Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x147f…5f7b sports 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$298 (+2%) realized +$298 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate71%265W / 108L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$9
14 days+$89
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$403
crypto 8% −$39
other 3% −$86
politics 2% −$8
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$12
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +7.5% -2.8% 59% 33% -9.8%
≤30d 134 +36.1% +23.1% 72% 43% -6.8%
≤90d 317 +13.1% +2.3% 68% 38% -7.2%
all 373 +12.6% +1.9% 71% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 38% -7.9%
10% -7.9% 25% -16.7%
15% -16.8% 18% -24.7%
20% -24.9% 14% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses265 / 108
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage190d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 373 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $303 −$20 -7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $3 $0 +13%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $391 −$23 -6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $170 +$30 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $182 −$84 -46%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $205 −$10 -5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $403 −$7 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Toss Match Double Engla Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $238 +$12 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $82 +$5 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $56 +$10 +18%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $4 +$6 +163%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $228 +$22 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $127 −$29 -22%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $94 +$4 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $3 +$2 +96%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $216 +$36 +17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $84 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Who wins the tos Jun 13 $6 +$4 +67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $186 +$14 +7%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $93 +$7 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $65 +$10 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $89 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Zimbabwe High Performance Xi vs Brazil Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $51 −$45 -88%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $40 +$12 +30%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $53 +$6 +11%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 10 $51 +$7 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5 Jun 10 $2 +$48 +1900%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $46 +$4 +9%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $105 +$10 +9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -96%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $84 −$73 -87%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $89 +$6 +7%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$14 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 84¢ $79 19m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 84¢ $89 19m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 73¢ $53 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 73¢ $93 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 52¢ $54 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 54¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 30¢ $59 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 43¢ $13 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 43¢ $4 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 43¢ $5 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 43¢ $23 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 42¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 55¢ $3 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 55¢ $95 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 55¢ $6 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 55¢ $5 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Malawi 3¢ $0 8h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Malawi 3¢ $1 8h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Malawi 4¢ $2 8h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Malawi 3¢ $3 8h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Brazil 100¢ $40 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 91¢ $36 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Brazil 73¢ $145 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Brazil 79¢ $0 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 72¢ $21 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 73¢ $3 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 73¢ $46 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 73¢ $10 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 24¢ $2 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 72¢ $46 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.28 · official $46.45 (match) · 1222 history records