Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x147e…eb1e
weather · 1046 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$3,433 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,474 · open −$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$28,186
Realized+$3,474
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses964 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions75
Markets (closed)971 / 1046
Avg bet$292
Trades / day76.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 75 History 971 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days−$632
14 days−$467
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,507 $1,507 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,333 $1,339 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,200 $1,202 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,202 $1,201 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,183 $1,185 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,164 $1,166 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,164 $1,165 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,164 $1,165 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,131 $1,128 −$3 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,130 $1,122 −$8 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,131 $1,121 −$11 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,103 $1,100 −$4 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,085 $1,085 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $974 $975 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $734 $735 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $718 $717 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $694 $692 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $646 $647 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $616 $617 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $572 $573 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $519 $519 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $475 $475 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $445 $445 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $429 $429 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $386 $387 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 69°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $1,349 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1,546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1,552 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $1,511 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1,551 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $1,552 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on June 1 Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1,114 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 11? Jun 12 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on June Jun 12 $745 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 1 Jun 12 $344 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 11 Jun 12 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 79°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1,550 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $374 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 11 Jun 12 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 1 Jun 12 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $473 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $383 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on Jun 12 $739 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 12 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on June 11? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C or below on June Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $243 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1,162 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $188 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 11 $375 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,552 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,552 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $687 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $726 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,163 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $1,551 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $1,550 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $230 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $222 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$3,433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $427 12m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $18 27m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $80 27m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,411 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $25 42m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $7 42m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $169 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $89 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $269 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $560 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $238 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $519 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,121 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1,005 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $145 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $441 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $498 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $231 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $174 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $64 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 13 BUY No 100¢ $302 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 912 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 971 +11.1% +0.5% 99% 1% -8.5%
all 971 +11.1% +0.5% 99% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 1% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -17.2%
15% -17.9% 1% -25.2%
20% -25.9% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,186.35 · official $28,186.88 (match) · 3500 history records