Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1477…be50
crypto · 480 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$422 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$420 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$420
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses214 / 266
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 480
History coverage11d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day114.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 480 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$625
7 days−$814
14 days−$420
30 days−$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 58¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Kocaelispor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kocaelispor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$114 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$33 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$27 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$19 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$21 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $72 +$24 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $92 −$22 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$40 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$50 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $82 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$72 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 -8.5% -17.2% 43% 39% -17.0%
≤30d 480 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 40% -12.5%
≤90d 480 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 40% -12.5%
all 480 -6.1% -15.0% 45% 40% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover114.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 40% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 34% -20.9%
15% -30.6% 28% -28.5%
20% -37.4% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.42 · official $17.37 (match) · 3500 history records