Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1470…2636 crypto 1573 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$204 (-3%) realized −$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%999W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$270
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$306
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -4.8% -13.8% 76% 76% -13.0%
≤30d 461 -4.9% -13.9% 80% 67% -17.3%
≤90d 1573 -3.5% -12.7% 64% 55% -13.5%
all 1573 -3.5% -12.7% 64% 55% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 55% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 34% -21.8%
15% -28.7% 25% -29.4%
20% -35.7% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses999 / 574
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1573 / 1573
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1573 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records