Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x146e…18af world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-7%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$11
other 17% $0
weather 12% −$11
politics 4% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -10.0% -18.6% 12% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 8 -10.0% -18.6% 12% 0% -14.9%
all 20 -5.9% -14.9% 40% 0% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -16.6%
10% -23.0% 0% -24.6%
15% -30.4% 0% -31.9%
20% -37.3% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage472d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $65 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $19 −$9 -46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $20 −$11 -56%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 7h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $26 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $9 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $19 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $17 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $21 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $38 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 25d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $5 358d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 379d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.87 · official $27.87 (match) · 55 history records