trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -10.0% | -18.6% | 12% | 0% | -14.9% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -10.0% | -18.6% | 12% | 0% | -14.9% |
| all | 20 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 40% | 0% | -16.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 0% | -16.6% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 0% | -24.6% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 0% | -31.9% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -38.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 24 | $65 | −$2 | -4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $19 | −$9 | -46% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $3 | −$1 | -28% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 24 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | May 20 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 18 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | May 16 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? | May 15 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? | May 14 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4? | Mar 03 | $20 | −$11 | -56% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? | Mar 03 | $20 | $0 | +0% |