Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x146d…17c7
other · 138 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,134 -52%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,102 · open +$66
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,377
Realized−$11,102
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses25 / 440
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions51
Markets (closed)465 / 138
History coverage18d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day187.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%
Chart Positions 51 History 465 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,537
7 days−$15,307
14 days−$12,532
30 days−$11,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 19¢ 38¢ $628 $1,249 +$622 (+99%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 49¢ 57¢ $520 $604 +$83 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $332 $172 −$160 (-48%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $83 $53 −$29 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $151 $52 −$98 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $142 $32 −$109 (-77%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-19%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+37%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+194%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $86 $9 −$77 (-89%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 81¢ 55¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-32%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $6 −$23 (-78%)
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-92%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 T Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$125 +440%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Award Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1,042 −$405 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $239 −$239 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on January 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Sinners" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$82 +1367%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January Jun 12 $1 +$8 +1281%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Billy Crudup win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awa Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$127 -291%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will a contestant numbered 26 - 50 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% +$4,180
politics 4% +$141
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $60 7m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $49 10m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 19m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $96 19m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 20m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 21m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $154 25m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 43m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 43m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 43m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 49m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 49m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 53m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 53m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $29 55m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 55m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 56m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 431 -69.0% -72.0% 4% 4% -67.7%
≤30d 465 -65.1% -68.4% 5% 5% -37.2%
≤90d 465 -65.1% -68.4% 5% 5% -37.2%
all 465 -65.1% -68.4% 5% 5% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover187.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.4% 5% -37.2%
10% ← realistic here -71.5% 5% -43.2%
15% -74.2% 5% -48.7%
20% -76.7% 5% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,377.03 · official $2,422.14 · 3500 history records