Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x146d…360a world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$13
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$6
other 24% −$1
sports 16% −$12
economics 14% −$2
tech 2% $0
politics 2% +$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.2% -12.5% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 25 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 35 +1.4% -8.3% 34% 3% -9.7%
all 48 -6.8% -15.6% 38% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 12% -10.2%
10% -23.7% 10% -18.8%
15% -31.1% 6% -26.6%
20% -37.8% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage528d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $163 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $60 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $125 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $43 −$9 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $72 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $95 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 −$1 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $76 +$6 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $93 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $199 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $84 −$2 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $468 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $224 −$1 -0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 14 $246 $0 +0%
TCU vs. Arizona State Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Feb 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Weber State vs. Montana State Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas State vs. UL Monroe Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
St. John's vs. Villanova Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January? Feb 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs by 9 or more points after the first ha Feb 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Feb 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Feb 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Dynamo Kyiv beat RFS? Feb 05 $6 +$6 +92%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? Jan 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 41h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $26 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $15 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.47 · official $37.34 (match) · 195 history records