Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x146c…b807 sports 817 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,596 (+4%) realized +$8,953 · open −$357
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%432W / 375L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1,150est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,467
7 days+$2,111
14 days+$2,165
30 days+$3,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$8,935
other 5% −$1,835
crypto 2% +$215
politics 0% +$265
tech 0% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +3.8% -6.1% 66% 64% +4.8%
≤30d 224 -5.4% -14.4% 58% 57% -3.4%
≤90d 422 -11.4% -19.8% 55% 50% -5.2%
all 807 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 49% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 49% -4.8%
10% -20.3% 40% -13.9%
15% -28.0% 33% -22.2%
20% -35.0% 24% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$125 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$1,143
Realized+$8,953
Unrealized−$357
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses432 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,150
Open positions10
Markets (closed)807 / 817
History coverage596d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Vitality 79¢ 82¢ $400 $418 +$18 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $300 $339 +$39 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 60¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 86¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+45%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 40¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 339 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $757 +$432 +57%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $102 −$43 -42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $253 +$143 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $436 +$256 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,104 +$237 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $202 +$130 +64%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$150 +365%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,609 +$255 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 −$160 -79%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,210 −$861 -71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $189 −$162 -86%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $301 +$48 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $202 +$117 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$26 -51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,003 +$113 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 +$129 +64%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $528 +$109 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $323 −$320 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $501 +$30 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$97 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$34 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $502 +$75 +15%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 −$8 -17%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,207 +$415 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $302 +$91 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $704 +$166 +24%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $202 +$135 +66%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $303 +$138 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $603 +$123 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $352 +$83 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $316 +$586 +186%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $697 −$576 -83%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $705 +$197 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 79¢ $403 13m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 34¢ $51 47m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 51¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 35¢ $102 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 94¢ $301 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $202 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 36¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $203 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $41 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $50 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $101 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 83¢ $201 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 51¢ $203 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $32 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 97¢ $801 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 76¢ $50 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $202 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 77¢ $50 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,142.54 · official $1,136.00 (match) · 1738 history records