Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x146a…0ad3 sports 390 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-5%) realized −$125 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%173W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$9
14 days−$8
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$80
other 22% −$53
crypto 1% −$17
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 38% -14.3%
≤30d 64 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 41% -20.6%
≤90d 249 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 43% -17.0%
all 384 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -15.6%
10% -27.2% 43% -23.7%
15% -34.2% 41% -31.1%
20% -40.7% 38% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses173 / 211
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)384 / 390
History coverage133d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 80¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+42%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 50¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 −$3 -46%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 +$6 +47%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $6 −$1 -9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -56%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +165%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $21 +$9 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $18 +$3 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 11 $6 −$5 -80%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 −$3 -72%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$5 +95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 +$5 +94%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $5 +$5 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $6 +$5 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $6 +$5 +82%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $6 +$2 +33%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $6 +$1 +11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $5 −$1 -20%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $5 −$4 -73%
FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $5 −$4 -77%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $4 −$3 -90%
Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $14 −$10 -72%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 May 23 $6 +$4 +59%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 May 23 $5 −$3 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 35¢ $4 8m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $7 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $6 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $6 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 79¢ $8 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $6 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $6 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $13 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $5 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $12 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $5 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $6 2d
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 47¢ $5 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $6 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $5 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $5 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 23¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 91¢ $9 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $5 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $5 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 69¢ $21 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 12¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.02 · official $60.17 (match) · 840 history records