Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
14 0x146a…9ced other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$779 (+30%) realized +$689 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,059
7 days+$1,059
14 days+$1,059
30 days+$1,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$101
sports 45% +$941
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +156.9% +132.4% 100% 100% +96.3%
≤30d 4 +156.9% +132.4% 100% 100% +96.3%
≤90d 11 +42.3% +28.7% 64% 45% +35.7%
all 11 +42.3% +28.7% 64% 45% +35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.7% 45% +35.7%
10% +16.4% 45% +22.7%
15% +5.2% 36% +10.9%
20% -5.1% 27% +0.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$93 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized+$689
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage66d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $400 $490 +$90 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $611 +$507 +83%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $91 +$38 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$398 +388%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $262 −$118 -45%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $212 +$52 +25%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $125 +$9 +8%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $328 −$185 -56%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $120 −$67 -56%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $666 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $91 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $305 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 49¢ $452 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $306 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 20¢ $102 27h
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 13¢ $144 62d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 25¢ $62 64d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 24¢ $200 64d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 6¢ $34 66d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 66d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 20¢ $30 66d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 66d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 66d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 30¢ $45 66d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 66d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 66d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 66d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 14¢ $60 66d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 24¢ $71 66d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 11¢ $63 66d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 66d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 39¢ $104 66d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 22¢ $47 66d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 4¢ $34 66d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 30¢ $80 66d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 66d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 85¢ $138 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.52 · official $489.52 (match) · 49 history records