Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1464…8748 crypto 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,602 (+6%) realized +$3,918 · open −$316
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%186W / 272L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,399
7 days+$4,640
14 days+$6,449
30 days+$2,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$2,271
other 29% +$2,662
finance 28% −$184
sports 3% −$409
tech 1% +$73
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% −$70
world 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +58.1% +43.0% 50% 50% +110.8%
≤30d 215 -30.8% -37.4% 15% 13% +1.7%
≤90d 355 +1.8% -7.9% 32% 27% -1.8%
all 458 +9.1% -1.3% 41% 33% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 33% -1.3%
10% -10.7% 28% -10.7%
15% -19.4% 24% -19.3%
20% -27.3% 21% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$54 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$1,761
Realized+$3,918
Unrealized−$316
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses186 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions17
Markets (closed)458 / 475
History coverage364d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 42¢ $210 $837 +$627 (+299%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $360 $358 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $842 $227 −$616 (-73%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $110 $122 +$12 (+11%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 18¢ $160 $41 −$119 (-74%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $108 $40 −$68 (-62%)
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $56 $33 −$23 (-41%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 29¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $37 $20 −$17 (-45%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $96 $17 −$79 (-82%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 50¢ 83¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+66%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 15¢ 36¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+140%)
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 4¢ $23 $2 −$21 (-91%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $162 −$56 -34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $597 +$1,410 +236%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$46 +216%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$41 +167%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $900 +$1,620 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $922 +$1,126 +122%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $690 +$341 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$18 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$144 +272%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$38 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in June? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 11 $650 +$1,975 +304%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $41 −$39 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$21 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$10 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $36 +$93 +257%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $22 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $39 −$33 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $35 −$30 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $31 −$29 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $37 +$26 +71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $49 −$46 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $80 −$75 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $62 −$13 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $32 +$231 +721%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $76 −$72 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $149 −$142 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $37 +$67 +181%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $496 −$182 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $50 −$48 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 47m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 5¢ $23 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $124 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 17¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 17¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 17¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 17¢ $62 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 17¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 16¢ $162 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $249 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 88¢ $9 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 64¢ $3 3h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,761.06 · official $1,761.12 (match) · 2177 history records