Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1462…07d9 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$138 (-35%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$142
sports 29% +$4
politics 7% $0
economics 4% $0
world 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 13 -9.4% -18.0% 31% 0% -10.3%
all 23 -7.8% -16.6% 22% 4% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 4% -41.2%
10% -24.5% 4% -46.8%
15% -31.8% 4% -52.0%
20% -38.5% 4% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage126d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May May 26 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-15? Feb 22 $141 −$141 -100%
Montana State Bobcats vs. Montana Grizzlies Feb 22 $5 +$6 +127%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May BUY No 97¢ $4 22d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $17 55d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 59d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 59d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $11 63d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $12 65d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 66d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 68d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $10 69d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $10 72d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 73d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 76d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 77d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 80d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 86¢ $11 81d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 86¢ $11 84d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $6 85d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 87d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $13 88d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $13 92d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $13 93d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $13 96d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $8 97d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $8 101d
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1 104d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $1 105d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 107d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records