Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x145c…4bde crypto 1328 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%831W / 650L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day98.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$974
7 days−$1,035
14 days−$1,124
30 days−$1,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 687 -17.4% -25.3% 53% 48% -20.8%
≤30d 1481 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 49% -15.6%
≤90d 1481 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 49% -15.6%
all 1481 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 49% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 49% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 26% -23.7%
15% -32.6% 14% -31.1%
20% -39.2% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses831 / 650
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1481 / 1328
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1481 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1203%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$13 -405%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$8 -215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$14 -164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$15 -718%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$17 -242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$7 -800%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$17 -538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$5 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records