Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x145b…8f5c other 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 780d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$47 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$4
14 days−$14
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$43
other 19% −$19
politics 15% +$8
world 6% −$10
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
finance 0% +$14
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.6% -8.9% 45% 29% -7.0%
≤30d 100 +8.8% -1.6% 44% 29% -7.4%
≤90d 102 +9.9% -0.6% 45% 30% +2.6%
all 145 +3.5% -6.3% 41% 26% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 26% -9.2%
10% -15.3% 21% -17.8%
15% -23.5% 16% -25.8%
20% -31.0% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

780d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions86
Markets (closed)145 / 231
History coverage780d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 20¢ 50¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+151%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 73¢ 91¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 75¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 42¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 69¢ 76¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 59¢ 65¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+31%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 80¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 74¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+31%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? No 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 28¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? No 40¢ 58¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+45%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -45%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +160%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $6 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +53%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +418%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -11%
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 08 $6 −$4 -71%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 8m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 8m
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? BUY No 61¢ $3 14m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 29m
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 49m
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 1h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $6 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.69 · official $242.70 (match) · 627 history records