Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x145a…5e86 sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,789 (+5%) realized +$9,830 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%63W / 64L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,528per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$497est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,077
7 days+$3,977
14 days+$3,310
30 days+$3,344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$2,885
politics 13% +$1,602
sports 12% +$760
other 8% −$806
tech 1% +$6,308
finance 1% −$445
economics 0% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +2.1% -7.6% 53% 50% +1.8%
≤30d 68 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 47% -1.1%
≤90d 91 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 40% -4.1%
all 127 +14.0% +3.1% 50% 35% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 35% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 27% -12.7%
15% -15.8% 23% -21.2%
20% -24.0% 17% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,136) neutral
Persistence
early +30% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$244 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$9,830
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses63 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$497
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage174d
Avg bet$1,528
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $37 $4 −$33 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $9 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,009 +$347 +34%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $733 +$142 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $912 +$356 +39%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 −$99 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $222 −$220 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $120 +$138 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $298 −$295 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $327 +$275 +84%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $530 +$276 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $254 −$254 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,000 +$961 +96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $504 +$244 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$9 +82%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $535 −$141 -26%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $122 +$114 +94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$5 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $520 −$520 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,011 −$472 -24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $704 −$145 -21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,000 −$554 -55%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $751 +$729 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $664 +$436 +66%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$185 +92%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $201 +$75 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $200 −$161 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $807 +$543 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $504 +$104 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,098 +$255 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $604 −$599 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $300 +$668 +223%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $602 +$335 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 +$116 +163%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $300 +$393 +131%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $601 −$117 -20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $383 +$262 +68%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $190 +$87 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $501 −$242 -48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $1 53m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $435 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $212 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $20 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $61 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $9 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $23 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $181 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $100 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $100 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $100 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.82 (match) · 2055 history records