Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
14 0x1455…0797 crypto 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,681 (-22%) realized −$6,683 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%101W / 173L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$580
7 days+$164
14 days+$164
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$7,054
crypto 18% −$77
politics 14% +$1,018
sports 8% −$87
other 2% +$27
world 1% −$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -26.8% -33.8% 26% 26% -0.9%
≤30d 104 -26.8% -33.8% 26% 26% -0.9%
≤90d 104 -26.8% -33.8% 26% 26% -0.9%
all 274 +10.5% -0.0% 37% 34% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 34% -28.1%
10% -9.6% 32% -35.0%
15% -18.3% 29% -41.2%
20% -26.3% 25% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$84 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$6,683
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses101 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)274 / 277
History coverage592d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 49¢ $22 $24 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$234 +554%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$27 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$74 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$39 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$100 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $82 +$49 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$104 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $83 +$83 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$22 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$31 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$29 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.50 · official $63.50 (match) · 1383 history records