Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1450…a925 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-16%) realized −$60 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$105
sports 16% +$58
crypto 8% +$14
tech 7% −$30
politics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +54.5% +39.7% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤30d 18 +54.5% +39.7% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 18 +54.5% +39.7% 44% 44% -14.4%
all 39 +6.9% -3.3% 41% 41% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 41% -25.6%
10% -12.6% 36% -32.8%
15% -21.0% 36% -39.3%
20% -28.8% 23% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage514d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $17 +$8 (+78%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 35¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$14 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Trump say 'retard' or 'retarded' during the 2025 State of the Uni Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenh Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 24-31? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Feb 08 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Jan 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24? Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Jan 23 $5 +$2 +43%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1? Jan 22 $5 +$3 +50%
TikTok on the App Store again by Monday? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $5 +$10 +203%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Jan 20 $20 +$8 +39%
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $11 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 32h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $11 32h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.21 · official $84.72 (match) · 88 history records