Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x144e…c7d2 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48 (+19%) realized +$54 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%6W / 21L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$16
sports 11% +$8
crypto 11% +$20
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-58.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -54.5% -58.9% 22% 22% +18.4%
≤30d 27 -54.5% -58.9% 22% 22% +18.4%
≤90d 27 -54.5% -58.9% 22% 22% +18.4%
all 27 -54.5% -58.9% 22% 22% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.9% 22% +18.4%
10% -62.8% 22% +7.1%
15% -66.4% 22% -3.3%
20% -69.7% 22% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×7.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses6 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -81%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +63%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$39 +167%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 +$20 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Edin Džeko: 2+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Oswin Appollis: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Luka Sučić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 28h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $62 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 33h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 3d
Edin Džeko: 2+ goals BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.03 · official $50.03 (match) · 41 history records