Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x144e…5e08 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1799 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 44L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$673per market
Trades / day1798.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$20
politics 18% $0
other 17% +$100
crypto 8% $0
economics 5% +$20
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1799 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 4% -9.1%
≤30d 52 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 52 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 4% -9.1%
all 52 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1798.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 4% -9.1%
10% -19.0% 2% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.8% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$598) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
34.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$0 · ×103.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.69 per $1 lost it wins $19.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$673
Trades / day1798.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 17 $1 −$4 -646%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -168%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -12%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,172 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4,542 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,699 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $80 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $4,911 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $319 +$19 +6%
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $908 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $113 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3,591 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,311 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $933 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $585 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $575 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $734 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $63 +$82 +131%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 16 $350 +$20 +6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $887 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,254 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $598 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $141 +$20 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,452 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $272 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $343 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 31m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $20 31m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $20 33m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 37m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $137 55m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $137 55m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $8 55m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $8 55m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $8 55m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $8 56m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $26 56m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $40 56m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $26 56m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $40 56m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $25 59m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $25 59m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $39 59m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $39 59m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $116 59m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $116 59m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $93 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $93 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $102 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $102 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.73 · official $120.80 · 3500 history records