Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x144c…d683 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$27
sports 20% −$18
world 19% +$7
other 5% +$26
tech 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.5% -3.7% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 4 +6.5% -3.7% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤90d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 10% -8.1%
all 58 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 7% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage238d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 91¢ 90¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 78¢ 98¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+26%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 28 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 28 $24 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $61 +$3 +5%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 26 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 26 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 07 $99 +$10 +10%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $28 −$4 -14%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 27 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 17 $22 $0 -1%
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da Apr 17 $43 +$4 +8%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $14 $0 +4%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $14 +$3 +20%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? Apr 01 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $21 +$1 +4%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 25 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $1,612 −$5 -0%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 02 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026? Mar 02 $21 +$4 +20%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 18 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Akylas win Sing for Greece 2026? Feb 18 $15 +$1 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 18 $1,644 +$5 +0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Feb 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 06 $32 +$3 +10%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 30 $36 +$1 +3%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $17 −$2 -11%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $4 −$2 -50%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Dec 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $49 −$6 -12%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $34 −$6 -17%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Dec 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 09 $19 −$6 -33%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 91¢ $122 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $61 32d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $16 32d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 32d
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 51d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 51d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 80¢ $21 51d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 91¢ $99 62d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 74¢ $21 62d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 62d
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 62d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 72d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 72d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $22 72d
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da SELL No 99¢ $47 72d
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 78d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 78d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $14 78d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 85d
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $21 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $14 88d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 83¢ $14 88d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $24 88d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? SELL No 100¢ $20 88d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 88d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? SELL No 100¢ $13 88d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $22 94d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $23 94d
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards BUY No 93¢ $16 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.57 · official $157.57 (match) · 170 history records