trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -68.4% | -71.4% | 25% | 12% | -49.1% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -68.4% | -71.4% | 25% | 12% | -49.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -68.4% | -71.4% | 25% | 12% | -49.1% |
| all | 8 | -68.4% | -71.4% | 25% | 12% | -49.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -71.4% | 12% | -49.1% |
| 10% | -74.1% | 12% | -54.0% |
| 15% | -76.6% | 12% | -58.4% |
| 20% | -78.9% | 0% | -62.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $26 | $26 | −$0 (-1%) |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 13¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? | Yes | 35¢ | 31¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-11%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-17%) |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-19%) |
| Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | Yes | 30¢ | 23¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Anthropic CEO arrested? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 6¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-66%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $18 | +$9 | +48% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |