Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x144b…d891 crypto 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%154W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 44% -14.4%
≤30d 229 -2.6% -11.9% 67% 49% -10.8%
≤90d 229 -2.6% -11.9% 67% 49% -10.8%
all 229 -2.6% -11.9% 67% 49% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 49% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 34% -19.3%
15% -28.0% 21% -27.1%
20% -35.0% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses154 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 578 history records