Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

14 0x1448…1127 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$26 (-36%) realized −$26 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-18.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-9.3%	-18.0%	33%	33%	-68.5%
≤30d	3	-9.3%	-18.0%	33%	33%	-68.5%
≤90d	3	-9.3%	-18.0%	33%	33%	-68.5%
all	3	-9.3%	-18.0%	33%	33%	-68.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.0%	33%	-68.5%
10%	-25.8%	33%	-71.5%
15%	-33.0%	33%	-74.3%
20%	-39.5%	33%	-76.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -65% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$26

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$31	−$30	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$7	+136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$3	-30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	43¢	$31	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Cabo V	BUY	5¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records