Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1448…e868 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,689 (-10%) realized −$4,351 · open +$1,662
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$394est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,232
7 days−$6,161
14 days−$2,970
30 days−$2,970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,278
other 1% +$12
crypto 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 44% -38.7%
≤30d 49 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 49% -20.7%
≤90d 49 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 49% -20.7%
all 49 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 49% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 49% -20.7%
10% -17.5% 49% -28.3%
15% -25.5% 49% -35.2%
20% -32.8% 45% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$579) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$363 vs −$540 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3,452
Realized−$4,351
Unrealized+$1,662
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$394
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage9d
Avg bet$513
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1,673 +$1,673 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group A Coalesce 50¢ 50¢ $900 $891 −$9 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 52¢ 52¢ $665 $664 −$1 (-0%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ 46¢ $176 $174 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $308 +$250 +81%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $469 −$463 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $470 +$744 +158%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $558 +$560 +100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $148 −$146 -99%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $294 −$290 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$20 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,099 +$1,535 +140%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $155 +$72 +47%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $919 −$900 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $153 +$149 +97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $307 +$429 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$14 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,598 −$1,575 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $152 −$149 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $467 −$457 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $1,739 −$1,739 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $1,531 −$1,531 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,645 −$1,645 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $319 +$182 +57%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $577 +$344 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 18 $469 −$469 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $136 +$1 +1%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $95 +$144 +152%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$35 +144%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,124 +$1,555 +73%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $579 −$579 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $723 −$723 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,523 −$1,523 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $283 +$154 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $349 +$222 +64%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,403 +$1,114 +79%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $122 −$4 -3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $604 +$610 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2,376 +$1,241 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 52¢ $86 56m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 51¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 51¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 52¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 52¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 50¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 50¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 49¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 49¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $313 2h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $316 2h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $321 2h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 50¢ $63 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $89 3h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $89 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,715 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 59¢ $50 15h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 59¢ $91 16h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $91 16h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $81 16h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $78 16h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 58¢ $78 16h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 55¢ $154 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 54¢ $154 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,452.31 · official $3,452.31 (match) · 161 history records