Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1445…bb4a crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$109 (+6%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$378
14 days−$378
30 days−$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$373
other 20% +$294
world 14% −$20
tech 10% −$46
politics 5% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 40% -41.5%
≤30d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 40% -41.5%
≤90d 16 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 44% -31.1%
all 38 +1.7% -8.0% 58% 37% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 37% -17.2%
10% -16.8% 34% -25.1%
15% -24.9% 26% -32.4%
20% -32.2% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$43 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage161d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $76 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $102 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$51 +50%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 25 $70 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $56 +$28 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 21 $70 +$107 +153%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 03 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $100 +$178 +178%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Feb 03 $100 −$5 -5%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 03 $10 +$3 +33%
TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28 Jan 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 29? Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 27 $20 +$22 +112%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 25 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $20 +$45 +223%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $20 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jan 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 22 $5 $0 +4%
GPT ads by March 31? Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $98 +$2 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL Yes 86¢ $77 1h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 1h
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? SELL Yes $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 72d
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 72d
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $100 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records