Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1444…6ce2 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+2%) realized +$45 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate73%36W / 13L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$12
economics 16% −$1
politics 10% +$8
crypto 10% +$6
finance 10% +$7
tech 4% +$3
sports 4% +$1
world 3% +$1
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.3% -23.4% 0% 0% -23.4%
≤30d 10 +6.8% -3.4% 70% 30% -4.2%
≤90d 35 +5.0% -5.0% 66% 26% -4.7%
all 49 +5.4% -4.6% 73% 22% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 22% -6.0%
10% -13.7% 14% -15.0%
15% -22.1% 8% -23.2%
20% -29.7% 2% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.25 per $1 lost it wins $4.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses36 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)49 / 73
History coverage131d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+15%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-22%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 60¢ 20¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-67%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 81¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+53%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $27 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $10 +$3 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $7 $0 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +20%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $21 +$2 +11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $19 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 19 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 19 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $19 +$1 +7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2 $0 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 04 $42 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $40 +$1 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $10 +$4 +43%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $20 +$1 +8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $21 $0 -1%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $16 $0 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $46 +$6 +13%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Apr 01 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +3%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 -1%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $17 +$9 +54%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 28 $13 $0 -1%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 20 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 20 $118 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $101 +$1 +0%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 10 $25 $0 +2%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $38 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Mar 01 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Mar 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 16 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL No 98¢ $33 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 19¢ $0 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.15 · official $70.62 · 288 history records