Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1444…a16c world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$8
politics 15% +$9
sports 14% −$62
other 8% +$34
weather 2% +$8
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 62% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 25 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 29 +0.5% -9.0% 55% 3% -9.0%
all 62 +10.5% -0.0% 50% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 11% -9.7%
10% -9.6% 10% -18.4%
15% -18.3% 10% -26.2%
20% -26.3% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage545d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $41 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -11%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $115 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $89 +$2 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $72 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 −$3 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $36 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $75 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $41 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $39 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $35 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 +$4 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 15 $236 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $252 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 20 $6 $0 +8%
Duquesne vs. La Salle Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 25 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Feb 22 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Feb 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Stuttgart? Feb 09 $15 −$1 -9%
Sabres vs. Predators Feb 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Islanders vs. Jets Feb 08 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Feb 08 $120 −$4 -3%
Will the match between FC Porto and Sporting CP end in a draw? Feb 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $7 +$29 +426%
Tafa vs. Teixeira Feb 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5? Feb 06 $7 +$7 +96%
Senators vs. Lightning Feb 06 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 5? Feb 06 $5 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 36m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $25 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $16 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $41 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $13 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $19 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $4 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.37 · official $16.10 (match) · 243 history records