Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1444…815d crypto 1688 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$23 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%125W / 1607L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1
other 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1732 -2.7% -11.9% 7% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 1732 -2.7% -11.9% 7% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 1732 -2.7% -11.9% 7% 0% -11.5%
all 1732 -2.7% -11.9% 7% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 0% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 0% -20.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses125 / 1607
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1732 / 1688
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -198%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 3500 history records