Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1442…3265 other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 21% −$29
politics 8% −$8
crypto 7% −$4
culture 7% −$7
world 5% −$5
economics 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage138d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $478 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $688 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $311 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $616 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $422 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $210 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 52m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 2h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 13h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 20h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 22h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 25h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 26h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 31h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 33h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 34h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 35h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 37h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 39h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 45h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 46h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 47h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.45 · official $53.45 (match) · 1467 history records