Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1442…5a8f world 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 601d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,988 (-2%) realized −$12,895 · open −$93
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%163W / 124L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,359per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$284
14 days+$284
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$19,781
crypto 34% +$2,079
politics 22% +$11,116
other 2% −$1,902
finance 1% −$191
sports 1% −$2,345
economics 0% −$465
tech 0% −$167
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +234.1% +202.3% 80% 40% +61.7%
≤30d 5 +234.1% +202.3% 80% 40% +61.7%
≤90d 41 +12.1% +1.4% 46% 12% -31.2%
all 287 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 21% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 21% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 12% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 10% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,760) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$385 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$12,895
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses163 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions3
Markets (closed)287 / 291
History coverage601d ⚠
Avg bet$2,359
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 37¢ 42¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 34¢ $86 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 11¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 29 $5 +$42 +819%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 29 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $72 +$324 +450%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $1,169 −$88 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $4,057 −$282 -7%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $4,784 +$606 +13%
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $1,100 −$934 -85%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $2,578 −$413 -16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $23,500 −$5,318 -23%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $54 −$36 -67%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $2,915 −$2,089 -72%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $26,544 −$4,656 -18%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $1,709 −$1,709 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? Apr 07 $56 −$8 -15%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 07 $1,164 −$166 -14%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 06 $162 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 06 $5,287 −$91 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 05 $15 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 05 $925 +$9 +1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 05 $1,000 −$87 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 05 $940 −$40 -4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $20,284 −$14,082 -69%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $2,750 +$97 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 03 $335 −$5 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 03 $500 +$8 +2%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $1,380 −$420 -30%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 02 $555 +$36 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 02 $1,000 −$521 -52%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 02 $37 −$28 -75%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 01 $5,349 +$198 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Apr 01 $344 −$10 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 01 $1,190 +$32 +3%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? Apr 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 01 $188 +$15 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $3,080 +$239 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 01 $200 +$27 +14%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 01 $237 +$21 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $5,218 +$420 +8%
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" on Truth Social this week? Mar 31 $10 +$4 +40%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Mar 30 $229 −$9 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 30 $184 −$16 -9%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $3,308 +$107 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $386 +$46 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Mar 30 $1,385 +$213 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 30 $11,833 +$89 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $463 −$262 -57%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $27,655 +$1,437 +5%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $21 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 37¢ $25 16m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 65¢ $122 20m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $50 32m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 83¢ $101 34m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $101 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes $1 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes $5 2h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $41 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $42 2h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Germany BUY 27¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $396 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 18¢ $61 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 18¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 18¢ $2 4h
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL No 55¢ $1,081 81d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 59¢ $169 81d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 59¢ $1,000 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No $9 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No $54 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.89 · official $28.89 (match) · 3500 history records