Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1441…0b51 crypto 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate84%146W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$4
other 22% −$2
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -3.9% -13.0% 84% 12% -10.2%
≤30d 173 -3.9% -13.0% 84% 12% -10.2%
≤90d 173 -3.9% -13.0% 84% 12% -10.2%
all 173 -3.9% -13.0% 84% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 12% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 9% -18.8%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses146 / 27
Open positions15
Markets (closed)173 / 188
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? No 77¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Yes 77¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Up 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? No 98¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 17m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 17m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.33 · official $16.33 (match) · 446 history records