Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1440…2eb0 crypto 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,986 (-9%) realized −$2,002 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%112W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$97
14 days+$115
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$996
other 18% −$856
culture 11% −$21
world 10% +$7
sports 7% −$196
politics 5% −$128
finance 1% −$51
economics 0% +$4
tech 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +26.0% +14.0% 64% 50% +13.0%
≤30d 22 +17.7% +6.5% 73% 45% +5.4%
≤90d 210 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 35% -18.8%
all 222 -9.4% -18.1% 50% 33% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 33% -19.1%
10% -25.9% 25% -26.8%
15% -33.1% 19% -33.9%
20% -39.6% 16% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$44 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$2,002
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses112 / 110
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)222 / 231
History coverage103d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $27 $39 +$13 (+47%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-30%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 16 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $62 +$17 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $26 +$48 +188%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$45 +178%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $26 −$14 -52%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $26 +$14 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $28 +$8 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $25 +$9 +37%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $148 +$12 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? May 11 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 11 $48 $0 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $100 −$39 -38%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $198 −$6 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2PM ET May 10 $51 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 09 $100 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 08 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $50 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 05 $51 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 05 $103 −$40 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET May 05 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $50 +$65 +129%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $50 +$38 +76%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $50 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 01 $151 −$46 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 84¢ $6 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 82¢ $24 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $40 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $25 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $15 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $59 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 30¢ $2 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 41h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $25 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $40 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 8¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 8¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 8¢ $0 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 23¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 22¢ $8 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 31¢ $26 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 15¢ $25 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $25 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 5d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 94¢ $26 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $30 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $25 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.46 · official $218.46 (match) · 1044 history records