Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1440…8cf8
crypto · 1230 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,340 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,882 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses757 / 473
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1230 / 1230
History coverage37d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day84.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1230 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$609
14 days−$1,742
30 days−$2,928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$23 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $74 −$26 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$23 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$22 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$45 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$25 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$19 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$33 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$17 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$4 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$3,633
sports 4% −$260
other 0% +$10
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $43 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $43 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -5.6% -14.6% 64% 40% -17.1%
≤30d 951 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 41% -18.4%
≤90d 1230 -8.1% -16.9% 62% 42% -18.5%
all 1230 -8.1% -16.9% 62% 42% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 42% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 29% -26.3%
15% -32.1% 18% -33.4%
20% -38.7% 12% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records