Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

14 0x143e…b821 sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 186d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,658 (+40%) realized +$2,659 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip

Net edge+72%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate62%15W / 9L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$254per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$88

7 days+$88

14 days+$88

30 days+$88

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+71.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+79.4%	+62.3%	100%	100%	+62.2%
≤30d	2	+79.4%	+62.3%	100%	100%	+62.2%
≤90d	2	+79.4%	+62.3%	100%	100%	+62.2%
all	24	+89.9%	+71.8%	62%	58%	+28.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+71.8%	58%	+28.1%
10%	+55.4%	50%	+15.8%
15%	+40.4%	50%	+4.6%
20%	+26.6%	46%	-5.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% too few recent

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +90% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late +199% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$378 vs −$331 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage

Net worth$97

Realized+$2,659

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses15 / 9

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)24 / 26

History coverage186d

Avg bet$254

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Under	66¢	66¢	$66	$66	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$32	$32	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$57	+$43	+76%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$55	+$45	+83%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Feb 20	$200	−$200	-100%
Thunder vs. Spurs	Feb 05	$242	−$242	-100%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans	Feb 05	$118	+$82	+70%
Kings vs. Cavaliers	Jan 25	$83	+$17	+20%
76ers vs. Raptors	Jan 13	$290	+$210	+72%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers	Jan 13	$85	+$415	+488%
Heat vs. Thunder	Jan 12	$430	+$70	+16%
Heat vs. Pacers	Jan 11	$124	+$276	+223%
Nuggets vs. 76ers	Jan 06	$120	+$880	+733%
Hornets vs. Thunder	Jan 06	$198	+$1,602	+809%
Rockets vs. Mavericks	Jan 03	$370	−$370	-100%
Hawks vs. Raptors	Jan 03	$590	−$590	-100%
Celtics vs. Clippers	Jan 03	$520	−$520	-100%
Magic vs. Bulls	Jan 03	$648	+$1,152	+178%
Rockets vs. Nets	Jan 01	$95	−$95	-100%
Suns vs. Cavaliers	Jan 01	$483	+$217	+45%
76ers vs. Grizzlies	Dec 31	$250	+$250	+100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-30?	Dec 30	$16	−$16	-100%
Warriors vs. Raptors	Dec 28	$682	−$682	-100%
Mavericks vs. Kings	Dec 28	$287	+$413	+144%
Celtics vs. Pacers	Dec 26	$260	−$260	-100%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Dec 26	$297	+$3	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	66¢	$67	10m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$100	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$33	5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$57	5h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	54¢	$55	26h
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$167	128d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$0	129d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$0	129d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	129d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$0	129d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$30	129d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	22¢	$31	144d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	22¢	$110	144d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	22¢	$1	144d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	22¢	$11	144d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	22¢	$15	144d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	22¢	$75	144d
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans	BUY Pelicans	59¢	$118	149d
Kings vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	83¢	$83	156d
Jazz vs. Cavaliers	BUY Jazz	17¢	$85	167d
76ers vs. Raptors	BUY 76ers	58¢	$290	168d
Heat vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	86¢	$430	168d
Heat vs. Pacers	BUY Pacers	31¢	$124	169d
Hornets vs. Thunder	BUY Hornets	11¢	$198	174d
Nuggets vs. 76ers	BUY Nuggets	12¢	$120	174d
Rockets vs. Mavericks	BUY Rockets	74¢	$370	177d
Hawks vs. Raptors	BUY Hawks	39¢	$390	177d
Hawks vs. Raptors	BUY Hawks	40¢	$200	177d
Celtics vs. Clippers	BUY Clippers	52¢	$335	177d
Celtics vs. Clippers	BUY Clippers	52¢	$4	177d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.00 · official $97.00 (match) · 69 history records