Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x143c…a1d9 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
other 38% +$1
crypto 7% $0
politics 7% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.6% -7.2% 57% 14% -8.8%
≤30d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 47% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 47% 7% -9.5%
all 35 +3.4% -6.5% 49% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 6% -9.3%
10% -15.4% 3% -18.0%
15% -23.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage377d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $25 $0 -1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +100%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 20 $23 $0 -2%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $28 28m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 28m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 28m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $24 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $14 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $38 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $0 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $30 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $4 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.79 · official $1.19 (match) · 112 history records