Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1435…7b52 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$179 (-11%) realized −$149 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$6
sports 17% −$154
other 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +34.3% +21.5% 37% 37% -19.7%
≤30d 38 +34.3% +21.5% 37% 37% -19.7%
≤90d 41 +29.1% +16.8% 37% 37% -20.0%
all 41 +29.1% +16.8% 37% 37% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 37% -20.0%
10% +5.6% 37% -27.7%
15% -4.6% 37% -34.7%
20% -13.9% 37% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$43 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$149
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage73d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $119 −$114 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $211 −$204 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$52 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$69 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$66 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$57 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$266 +372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$162 +765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$107 +538%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$42 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$41 +553%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 03 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 03 $11 +$10 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 394 history records