Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1430…56f1 crypto 956 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,612 (-5%) realized −$1,565 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%222W / 780L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$99
14 days−$191
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,519
other 1% +$20
culture 1% +$36
world 0% −$32
sports 0% +$21
weather 0% −$5
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -78.1% -80.2% 7% 6% -31.7%
≤30d 179 -21.5% -29.0% 8% 7% -41.8%
≤90d 1002 -9.0% -17.6% 22% 9% -13.8%
all 1002 -9.0% -17.6% 22% 9% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 9% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 7% -22.1%
15% -32.7% 6% -29.6%
20% -39.3% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$1,565
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses222 / 780
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1002 / 956
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $92 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in June? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+37%)
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 388 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 23h
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 40¢ $8 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 31h
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat SELL No 16¢ $3 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 33h
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat BUY No 16¢ $3 34h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W SELL No 16¢ $3 35h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 16¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 36h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 29¢ $2 37h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 38¢ $2 37h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 SELL No 39¢ $8 37h
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.39 · official $128.37 (match) · 3500 history records