Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1425…d60d
weather · 347 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$609 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$444 · open −$165
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$122
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses146 / 189
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions124
Markets (closed)335 / 347
History coverage46d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day60.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 124 History 335 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$47
14 days−$39
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 30¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+693%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+485%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 21¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+447%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 32¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+972%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+1060%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 50¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 50¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 21¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1454%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+580%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+580%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+326%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+899%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+285%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+801%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+242%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+237%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+303%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $139 +$9 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $138 −$10 -7%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $125 +$29 +23%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $60 −$40 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $31 +$10 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $131 +$14 +11%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $120 −$17 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $108 −$5 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $82 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$6 -39%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $67 +$40 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $70 −$37 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $33 +$23 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $11 +$10 +94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $12 +$10 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $0 $0 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $32 +$12 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $41 +$36 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $13 −$9 -73%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $63 +$9 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% −$246
weather 34% −$346
sports 2% −$17
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 32m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $147 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $139 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $128 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $138 30h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $138 30h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 47h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 28% -13.8%
≤30d 111 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 41% -12.8%
≤90d 335 +15.6% +4.6% 44% 33% -20.1%
all 335 +15.6% +4.6% 44% 33% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 33% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 22% -27.8%
15% -14.5% 18% -34.7%
20% -22.9% 14% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.77 · official $121.90 (match) · 3500 history records