Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1425…2060 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-26%) realized −$65 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$35
other 37% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.3% -2.9% 89% 56% -11.4%
≤30d 9 +7.3% -2.9% 89% 56% -11.4%
≤90d 33 -29.5% -36.2% 52% 33% -30.0%
all 33 -29.5% -36.2% 52% 33% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 33% -30.0%
10% -42.3% 27% -36.7%
15% -47.9% 12% -42.8%
20% -53.0% 6% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage57d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $26 $40 +$14 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$4 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 25 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 25 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 25 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 25 $13 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 24 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 24 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $6 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 84¢ $4 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.14 · official $40.12 (match) · 87 history records