Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

14 0x1424…3d2c crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$6 (-18%) realized −$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR9%break-even

Win rate36%4W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day31.0pace

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +9%

net ROI/market (all)-29.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-22.2%	-29.6%	36%	9%	-24.2%
≤30d	11	-22.2%	-29.6%	36%	9%	-24.2%
≤90d	11	-22.2%	-29.6%	36%	9%	-24.2%
all	11	-22.2%	-29.6%	36%	9%	-24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover31.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-29.6%	9%	-24.2%
10% ← realistic here	-36.3%	0%	-31.4%
15%	-42.5%	0%	-38.0%
20%	-48.1%	0%	-44.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

75% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.05 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses4 / 7

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day31.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$2	-31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 16	$4	$0	+0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET	Jun 16	$6	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$1	$0	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$2	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$2	13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$2	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	SELL Down	32¢	$1	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$2	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$1	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$1	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$1	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$4	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$2	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$2	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$2	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Up	57¢	$4	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$2	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$2	44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	SELL Down	43¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$1	1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL No	28¢	$1	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records