Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1422…1933
other · 120 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$76 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$76 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 103
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage95d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 11 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $59 −$2 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $119 −$3 -2%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $59 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $108 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $230 −$2 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $136 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $116 −$1 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $56 −$1 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $51 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 22 $42 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 22 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $59 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $154 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% −$83
politics 24% +$39
sports 19% −$11
world 5% −$6
culture 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$4
tech 3% −$2
economics 2% −$5
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $54 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $54 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $59 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $59 17h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $56 18h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 98¢ $57 25h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $50 26h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $51 32h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $60 32h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $61 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $52 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 46h
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $10 47h
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $57 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $59 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 96¢ $59 3d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 97¢ $59 5d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $56 5d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $56 5d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 5d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 5d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $66 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 57 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 110 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 1% -9.9%
all 119 -0.9% -10.3% 13% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.45 · official $47.45 (match) · 431 history records