Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1422…c3d3 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$6
other 21% $0
politics 11% +$1
economics 7% $0
sports 7% +$3
crypto 6% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -2.8% -12.0% 23% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 13 -2.8% -12.0% 23% 0% -11.4%
all 51 -3.0% -12.3% 45% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage489d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 −$3 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $19 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $17 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $29 −$2 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 20 $1 $0 -40%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -56%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump say 'Canada' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $13 +$1 +11%
Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Mar 04 $19 −$6 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $34 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $23 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $5 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $6 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $35 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $38 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $43 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $43 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $19 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $19 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.20 · official $34.20 (match) · 125 history records