Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1421…2c65 politics 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$4
politics 32% −$8
sports 7% −$3
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 9 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -3.3% -12.5% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 109 -9.3% -17.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -25.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -32.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 95
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage404d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1 $0 -19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $41 $0 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $45 $0 -1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $44 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $45 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $44 $0 -0%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $1 $0 -50%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $2 $0 -12%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $60 $0 -1%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $53 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $2 $0 -12%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $41 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $41 15d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY No 99¢ $41 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 24d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 28d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 28d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 32d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 120d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 127d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 130d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 135d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 135d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 138d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $41 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.68 · official $42.68 (match) · 507 history records