Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1420…9daa sports 320 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$319,433 (-84%) realized −$318,855 · open −$578
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%106W / 308L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,186per market
Trades / day58.6pace
Fees−$4,463est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$5,203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274,250
7 days−$257,995
14 days−$257,995
30 days−$260,907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$38,562
other 31% −$31,687
world 1% +$590
crypto 0% +$29
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -49.3% -54.1% 10% 10% -81.3%
≤30d 273 -43.2% -48.6% 16% 16% -77.2%
≤90d 414 -31.2% -37.8% 26% 24% -60.9%
all 414 -31.2% -37.8% 26% 24% -60.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 24% -60.9%
10% -43.7% 22% -64.7%
15% ← realistic here -49.2% 21% -68.1%
20% -54.1% 18% -71.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$1,029) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,135 vs −$1,520 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$5,203
Realized−$318,855
Unrealized−$578
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses106 / 308
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$4,463
Open positions45
Markets (closed)414 / 320
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$1,186
Trades / day58.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,366 $1,427 +$62 (+5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $571 $518 −$54 (-9%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 24¢ $403 $366 −$37 (-9%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 44¢ 42¢ $342 $330 −$12 (-3%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 80¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $220 $221 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $218 $207 −$12 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $210 $206 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 22¢ 20¢ $171 $159 −$12 (-7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $166 $154 −$12 (-8%)
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Yes 55¢ 55¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $77 $141 +$64 (+83%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 9¢ 7¢ $152 $120 −$31 (-21%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $122 $119 −$3 (-3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $115 +$4 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $106 $93 −$14 (-13%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $215 $90 −$124 (-58%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $97 $84 −$13 (-13%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ 10¢ $141 $75 −$66 (-47%)
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Uruguay 10¢ 8¢ $78 $66 −$12 (-15%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $59 $47 −$12 (-21%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-16%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $58 $37 −$21 (-36%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $55 $31 −$24 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 308 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 21 $3,291 −$3,291 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 21 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,532 −$2,532 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2025 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $383 −$383 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-29? Jun 21 $114 −$114 -100%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Shelton (+2.5) Jun 21 $112 −$112 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $990 −$990 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jun 21 $625 −$625 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Jun 21 $450 −$450 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 21 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 21 $7,136 −$7,136 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Rybakina (+1.5) Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jun 21 $220 −$220 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Fonseca Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,904 −$1,904 -100%
Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5) Jun 21 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-03-27? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Jun 21 $24 +$999 +4141%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) Jun 21 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Jun 21 $84 −$84 -100%
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Jun 21 $5,056 −$5,056 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 21 $15,223 −$15,223 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Jun 21 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Jun 21 $726 −$726 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Jun 21 $4,168 −$4,168 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2025-11-07? Jun 21 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 21 $571 −$571 -100%
Will a new MAI model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -93%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-02-08? Jun 21 $748 −$748 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by April 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -39%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-02-08? Jun 21 $481 −$481 -100%
Arsenal vs. Brentford: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-12-06? Jun 21 $2,115 −$2,115 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 21 $902 −$902 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $110 15m
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $43 37m
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $21 38m
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $412 38m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $0 52m
Spread: Uruguay (-4.5) BUY Uruguay 9¢ $1 53m
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 10¢ $80 53m
Will Viktor Gyökeres record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 0¢ $1 53m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $175 53m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $348 54m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 16¢ $181 54m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $79 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 50¢ $120 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,121 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $85 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $44 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 2h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $7 3h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $68 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,203.23 · official $5,391.49 · 3500 history records