Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x141b…10ef
crypto · 170 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$314 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$301 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$173
Realized+$301
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses103 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)163 / 170
History coverage80d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 7 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $57 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +110%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $20 +$4 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 31 $176 +$45 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 02 $6 +$7 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 02 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 02 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 02 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 01 $3 +$5 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $100 +$104 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% +$129
finance 8% +$152
world 7% +$35
other 2% −$16
politics 1% +$10
tech 0% +$7
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +3.5% -6.4% 72% 58% -1.8%
≤30d 38 +4.5% -5.5% 74% 61% +1.6%
≤90d 163 +1.2% -8.4% 63% 45% -1.4%
all 163 +1.2% -8.4% 63% 45% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 45% -1.4%
10% -17.2% 33% -10.8%
15% -25.2% 21% -19.4%
20% -32.5% 17% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.08 · official $173.09 (match) · 423 history records