Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x141a…2cd4
other · 16 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$213 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$222 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$161
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage586d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 2 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$13
14 days−$306
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $147 $146 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $148 +$16 +11%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Jun 03 $84 −$84 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $101 −$24 -24%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming Sep 14 $100 +$108 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$137
politics 17% −$147
sports 12% +$103
economics 4% −$34
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $151 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $164 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa 3¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $148 11d
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 232d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 249d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 255d
US government shutdown by October 1? BUY No 17¢ $12 257d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 258d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference? BUY No 4¢ $1 269d
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference? BUY No 4¢ $3 269d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 271d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 49¢ $84 272d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? SELL Yes 27¢ $77 272d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 273d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 273d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 273d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 273d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $34 273d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 273d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 273d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming SELL Xtreme Gaming 99¢ $208 273d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming BUY Xtreme Gaming 47¢ $52 273d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Xtreme Gaming BUY Xtreme Gaming 48¢ $48 273d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 38¢ $135 586d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 12 -68.7% -71.7% 17% 17% -67.5%
≤90d 12 -68.7% -71.7% 17% 17% -67.5%
all 14 -52.8% -57.3% 21% 21% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 21% -39.1%
10% -61.4% 14% -45.0%
15% -65.1% 14% -50.3%
20% -68.6% 14% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.89 · official $160.89 (match) · 52 history records